'Smart Decline': A Lifeline for Zombie Subdivisions

This is sure to be an ongoing topic of this blog. For now I will simply say that the future of sprawling exurbs (basically any subdivision/development built in the last 20 years) is extremely gloomy. This is by far the most inefficient, resource intensive and heavily subsidized lifestyle ever created. New suburban houses are typically very poorly constructed. Even the most expensive houses aren't built to last more than 30 years. The majority of the added expense comes from higher quality finishes like granite counter-tops (i.e. the guts of a house in valued at $500,000 in any given location are no better than one valued at $150,000.

Unlike inner city houses that were carved up into apartments after the mass migration of the white-middle class to the suburbs, these fringe McMansions are not built well enough to endure a relative lack of upkeep or investment. In fact the entire suburban built environment is conceptualized as temporary. Big Box Retail (Targets, Wal-Marts, etc.) reach their maximum real estate value within the first 5 - 7 years of construction. In 10 years they're often abandoned for something closer to the newest housing construction. 

These so-called "neighborhoods" - which are, in reality, nothing more than "developments" or commoditized products -  are typically too far from transit and jobs to be viable, let alone valuable places to live in a future of oil shortages (when gas is $5 dollars a gallon and more). Studies already show that, due to transportation costs, living in the exurbs is, in fact, more expensive than living in more dense environments with higher housing prices (this is despite the massive subsidization of suburban home-ownership).

Things are changing, and fast. The housing market will never be anything like it was pre-2008. Historically housing prices increase at the rate of inflation (what we witnessed from the mid-90's to the mid-00's was an aberration). Despite the ambitions of Wall Street speculators, housing doesn't work very well as a pure commodity (more valuable in temporary exchange than in long-term use).